The hottest multi air confrontation PVC is expecte

2022-08-22
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Long and short confrontation PVC is expected to rise violently

PVC prices hit a new low of 6790 in the year in late July, and then came out of a wave of oversold rebound. However, due to the sharp decline in international crude oil prices in August and the further slowdown in global economic growth, foreign stock markets have weakened, and PVC entered the box in August and operated violently. Entering Shandong Ruifu lithium industry, Huayou cobalt industry, jiangte Electromechanical industry, Yahua industry, Hunan Changyuan lithium science and Technology Co., Ltd. to participate in foreign mines or sign cooperation strategic agreements with foreign mines. In September, PVC passed through the box pressure level, but the market still had great differences on the future direction. The slowdown of global economic growth has become a consensus, and crude oil will also remain weak. However, with the rise of calcium carbide and ethylene prices, PVC has cost support. How to generate a list from mobilization, and the European debt crisis is temporarily relieved. The United States will inject liquidity into the market when the economy deteriorates, and domestic inflation expectations will also drive commodity prices. On the whole, the author believes that under the long and short confrontation, PVC may fluctuate higher

-- the international economic situation is mixed. The panic caused by European debt has temporarily come to an end. Recent data show that corporate investment and consumer spending in the eurozone have rebounded, and the economy may still return to the recovery track. As the pace of economic recovery in the United States slows down, the Federal Reserve will promote the sustained economic recovery through the implementation of "unconventional" monetary policy, so as to avoid the second bottom of the economy. This measure can boost market confidence in the short term and alleviate the recent negative economic situation

-- domestic inflation expectations remain unchanged. The market expects the consumer price index to hit a new high in August, and the recent sharp rise in the price of international bulk agricultural products will continue to bring inflation impetus to China. Funds are more willing to enter the market to maintain value under the condition of worrying about inflation. At present, the interest rate of domestic bank deposits remains at a low level. Although the pressure for interest rate hike is gradually increasing, the state continues to adhere to the loose monetary policy, which has alleviated investors' concerns about the economy to a certain extent

-- the weakness of international crude oil remains unchanged. According to the latest analysis of the current situation of China's plastic industry by Li Yongwu released by the U.S. Department of energy information (EIA), the cost expansion data of the paper packaging market showed that as of the week of August 20, the total oil inventory in the United States had reached 1.14 billion barrels, a new high since 1990, indicating that the demand of the world's largest energy consumer is still weak. OECD countries' crude oil and refined oil inventories also continued to rise, exceeding a record high of 130million barrels. In the later stage, the supporting role of crude oil prices will be further weakened, making it difficult for oil prices to rise, and it may be difficult for oil prices to break through the previous high during the year. As a downstream industry of crude oil, the cost support factor of PVC will be weakened

-- the relationship between supply and demand has improved. The PVC industry is facing the contradiction between rising costs and overcapacity. Affected by energy conservation and emission reduction, domestic calcium carbide supply continues to be tight. At the same time, due to the bottleneck of transportation, the arrival of calcium carbide in PVC enterprises is extremely abnormal, which promotes the rise of calcium carbide prices. At the same time, ethylene prices also bottomed out and remained high. Driven by costs, and energy conservation, emission reduction and power rationing factors may affect the supply of PVC, PVC enterprises have successively raised factory quotations. At the same time, the downstream demand for PVC is still sluggish, but will improve, and the PVC operating rate has rebounded. "Golden nine and silver ten" is the traditional peak consumption season. The government will build 3million affordable housing units this year, which will stimulate the demand of the building materials market

-- Technical Analysis and future market outlook. It is expected that in the short term, the long and short sides will have a fierce battle, running in a narrow range, and the overall trend will fluctuate upward, but there is a certain resistance at the 7750 price. If the upward momentum increases and the price stands firmly above the box, a relay head shoulder bottom shape may be formed. It is recommended to continue to hold multiple orders. The first target is 7700. If you can stand firm, you can see it as high as 7900

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